Concern Rising over Populist Policies

Candidates adopt populist-oriented policies in the Seoul mayoral race

Criticism is increasing over the populist-oriented policies of the candidates for the Seoul mayoral race. Regardless of party affiliation, the candidates are engaged in wooing support from voters with policies designed to promote the welfare of the people. They seem not to have in mind the adverse impact such welfare-only pledges will bring about for the society and, in particular, for the future generations.
The policies for free meals and even free medical services appear attractive and useful in inducing voters, but there must be concern over who will pay the bill.
A blind pursuit of such welfare-oriented policies will possibly lead the nation to face a serious economic crisis as seen in the case of Greece, now suffering from a growing financial debacle under the threat of looming default.
Time has come for political leaders to show bipartisanship to steer the economy out of the emerging crisis. They should stand behind President Lee Myung-bak at least on economic issues.
The bipartisanship has become critical as the triple shock -- the nosediving of stocks, the de facto free fall of the local currency, and soaring inflation -- have battered the economy.
Korea has the painful memory of seeking a bailout from the IMF in 1997. In hindsight, the nation could not have sought outside rescue unless politicians were divisive.
Then-President Kim Young-sam could do little to rescue the economy. He was almost in a lame duck situation with less than one year of his presidency left. His son and cronies were jailed. Parties were locked in a presidential race. The National Assembly sabotaged economic and labor reform bills. At that time, the economic troubles were internal although the global economy was in good shape.
This time, the nation sees a similar situation. President Lee is in a predicament as his aides are under investigation. Parties are gearing up for parliamentary and presidential elections next year. The otherwise-solid domestic economy is at the mercy of external shocks.
Leaders must be bipartisan at least on three economic issues. First, a ratification of the Korea-U.S. free trade agreement is advisable. It is a deal that would create jobs and stimulate trade. Few candidates opposing an FTA have won elections worldwide. Opposition leaders should not politicize the technicalities of the pact. Second, the bipartisan approach is necessary for managing the record household debt. In 1997, it was debt-ridden conglomerates that had triggered the crisis. This time, it would be the debt-laden households that might detonate the economy. Without managing the problem well, Korea might not withstand the emerging global economic tsunami. Third, the timely management of capital inflow and outflow is recommendable in order to shield the economy from external shocks. A rapid exodus of portfolio capital jolts the stock and currency markets. Banks should be under tight supervision to prevent the possible mismatching of short-term foreign currency debts with long-term ones. Politicians should not underestimate the seriousness of the current economic situation.
The voter turnout among people in their 20s and 30s, along with online campaigning and the so-called Ahn Cheol-soo factor, have become decisive factors in the Seoul mayoral election slated for Wednesday.
The majority of eligible voters in their 50s or older are considered conservative, whereas their counterparts in their 40s or younger are more liberal. Campaign watchers say the majority of the latter leaned towards the liberals after the 1990s as the wealth gap between high and low-income earners widened.
Rising tuition fees and high youth unemployment also contributed to those in their 20s and 30s showing a tendency toward a liberal political ideology.
Many experts forecast that the more young voters who cast their ballots in the by-election, the more likely it is for Park Won-soon, the unified liberal candidate, to win the mayoral race, as they are the determining factor of voter turnout, while the elderly are considered fixed votes. The critical turnout is 45 percent, they say.
Shin Yul, professor of political science at Myongji University in Seoul, argues that the magic number is 50 percent for Park to beat Na Kyung-won, who is running on the ruling Grand National Party (GNP) ticket.
Polls say the competition between Park and Na is neck and neck. "Forty-five percent isn't the critical turnout. I personally think it should be 50 percent or more," said Shin.
"The turnout of the August free lunch referendum was 27.3 percent. Among them, conservatives were about 22 to 23 percent," the professor said. "Let's suppose that half of the eligible voters in Seoul actually show up to the ballot boxes in the by-election. If we do the math based on the free lunch referendum, conservative voters, who are more likely to vote for Na, would be around 46 percent."
Prof. Shin indicated that the GNP candidate would gain much more than 46 percent of support in the real election, because some of the undecided voters and those who refused to give their preferred candidate to pollsters during public opinion surveys could vote for her. In this case, support for her would go above 50 percent. "If this happens, then Park can't win as his rate would be below 50 percent. So I think the critical turnout for the former civic group activist should be more than 50 percent," said Shin.The relatively low voter turnout in by-elections, as they are held on weekdays, could negatively affect the liberal candidate. "The turnouts in by-elections have never reached 50 percent. The turnout of the Bundang-B district was 49.1 percent, even though those who answered that they would surely turn up in surveys taken prior to the actual election was 68 percent," added Shin.
The April by-election for the Bundang-B district had received a lot of attention and recorded unprecedented high voter turnout due to the showdown between the main opposition Democratic Party chairman Sohn Hak-kyu and former GNP Chairman Kang Jae-sup. nw