Moving Toward Electric Car
Slowly, but surely, electromobility is on its way to becoming reality
The electric car is coming. This is one thing automotive industry forecasters agree on. But when will it come The answer to this question is far less unequivocal. But at least one thing is clear: the idea of a technological revolution that will bring millions of electric cars onto our streets overnight does not hold up against hard economic facts. Even in 2020, a lithium-ion battery with a range of 200 kilometers will cost more than 5,000 euros. There are many arguments to support the assertion that the transition to electromobility will be gradual. This evolution will give rise to opportunities. As it will take more than a decade, the period of transition to purely electric driving will see a number of specific solutions for specific markets.
At Bosch, 400 million euros are invested each year in projects related to powertrain electrification, and some 800 engineers are working to make the vision of e-mobility a reality. But development work is only half the battle. Convincing drivers of the benefits of electric cars poses another major challenge. Doing so requires presenting customers with market-ready solutions right now. Prototypes that set new records but are not ready for series production will do little to promote the widespread acceptance of electric driving. In contrast, the e-bike, which is already available today, shows the benefits of electromobility to the masses. And as long as traction batteries for long ranges remain too expensive, it makes sense to think about how and where the battery technology can be applied in the meantime. On the road to e-mobility, small steps are equally important for future success.
Take the plug-in hybrid, for instance. This type of vehicle is powered by a relatively compact and affordable battery for short ranges. The car can be plugged in and the battery recharged from the electricity main. Combined with a gasoline or diesel engine for longer trips, the plug-in hybrid could soon be a realistic option for everyone. It could be just the solution for a family that runs errands in the city using the electric drive, and then visits relatives a few hundred kilometers away using the internal-combustion engine. Technically speaking, a combined system such as this calls for broad systems expertise in all types of drive systems ― the very kind of networked knowledge that a global supplier brings to the table. This broad-ranging know-how has enabled such companies to think beyond the either/or of conventional and electric driving.
As it is, the technological progress of all drive systems has to be driven forward. On the one hand, the issue is to reduce the fuel consumption of the internal-combustion engine by another third. This is especially important when we consider that some 95 percent of all new vehicles in 2020 will still be powered by diesel and gasoline engines. On the other hand, work has to be done to reduce the cost of electromobility and increase the range of electric cars. The decisive factor here is the further development of lithium-ion batteries, for example in our SB LiMotive joint venture with Samsung SDI. In the long term, the energy density of such batteries will have to at least double.
However, the engineering tasks faced by the automotive industry as a whole go far beyond this; they also include electric motors and power electronics. At all events, corporate strategy should be based not only on broad-based expertise, but also on in-depth know-how. On this basis, Bosch will be supplying 12 automakers with components and systems required for some 20 electromobility-related projects by 2013. Powertrain electrification presents major opportunities for suppliers who specialize in electrics and electronics. Together, these areas have a 40 percent share of the value added in today's vehicles, and this share will rise to 75 percent in tomorrow's electric cars.
Until then, there are still many hurdles to overcome, which concern the entire industry. It will not be sufficient for companies to reduce costs in isolation. Pooling production and standardizing components will also be necessary. At the moment, not even the plug-in connections for power electronics are standardized, making them just as expensive as the highly complex semiconductors that perform the actual function. Such a small example shows how much cost-saving potential remains unexploited in the industry. To achieve economies of scale, alliances are also needed between carmakers, and also between carmakers and suppliers. This is why Daimler and Bosch have decided to join forces to further develop and manufacture electric motors for electric vehicles, which will also be sold to third parties.
And there are still a number of questions to be answered beyond drivetrain technologies. How can we ensure that a sufficient number of engineers are trained to develop the vehicles of the future How can electric driving be combined with other types of transport How can the battery be recharged from the electricity main This concerns people who live in fourth-floor apartments, as well as those who visit them. There are a number of services emerging to solve such problems. Guiding drivers to charge spots and taking care of the billing process with utility companies together with our partners, we are testing internet-based business models such as these in a pilot project in Singapore.
The project shows where the best opportunities for electromobility lie: in the world's megacities and metropolises. By 2015, more than 60 cities around the world ― nearly twice as many as in 1995 ― will have populations of more than 5 million. It is this growth that makes the currently limited range of (partly) electric vehicles acceptable. The electric car is coming, it won appear overnight everywhere, but in urban environments first. And in these environments it will soon attract buyers. nw
By Dr. Bernd Bohr, member of the board of management of Robert Bosch GmbH and chairman of its Automotive Group
Photo on Courtesy of Robert Bosch GmbH |