KMA’s Innovation Begins to Pay Off

KMA Administrator Chun pulls his weight in upgrading observation equipment and training weather forecasters

The Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA)’s bid to innovate its meteorological services has been in high gear to meet public demands.
KMA Administrator Chun Byung-seong, 11 months at the helm at the meteorological agency, has spearheaded the innovations.
Chun said, “We face difficulties in conducting weather forecasting, as specialized technology and expertise as well as systematic training of weather forecasters are the greatest things to be addressed.”
He said many more things have yet to be done, including the reinforcement of equipment and the development of technology.
The nation’s third super computer for meteorological services will be in place at the Ochang Super Computer Management Center in Chuncheongbuk-do this year. If the Communication, Ocean and Meteorological Satellite (COMS), Korea’s first meteorological satellite, is launched next March as planned, Korea will be the seventh country to have a meteorological satellite in orbit following the United States, Japan, Europe, Russia, India and China, he said.
Weather forecasters have so far undergone a one-night, two-day in-housing training, but from next year, they will attend a two- to three-month-long educational program designed to foster specialized experts, Chun said.
The KMA appointed Prof. Kenneth Crawford, a U.S. meteorological authority, to head the advancement of Korea’s meteorological affairs this past August with the mission of innovating for the KMA’s take-off by analyzing the overall business and embracing advanced countries’ meteorological policies and responses to climate change and advancing observation systems. He is now working on the strategies for the development of the KMA, Chun said.
Thanks to the KMA’s efforts to promote international cooperation, Korea has been awarded the right to host the 32nd Session of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in Busan next October and the 4th Session of the Joint WMO-IOC Technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology (JCOMM) in Yeosu in 2012, he said. About 1,000 meteorological experts and government officials from Korea and abroad will converge for the upcoming IPCC conference.
The KMA’s innovation has begun to bear fruit. For instance, a Korean Baseball Organization (KBO) representative told the second session of the 2009 meteorological customers’ meeting on Dec. 4 that the KBO has become a beneficiary of the KMA’s more accurate weather forecasts: the number of pro baseball games that were rained out declined from 78 in 2007 to 41 in 2008 and 33 this year, while the number of games that were ordered to be replayed another day due to rain decreased from five in 2007 to two in 2008 and 2009.
The following are excerpts of an interview between NewsWorld and KMA Administrator Chun.
Question: Korea was granted the right to host the 4th Session of the Joint WMO-IOC Technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology (JCOMM). Will you introduce the conference?
Answer: The 3rd Session of JCOMM, held in Marrakech, Morocco, this past December awarded Yeosu the right to host the next congress. As a Korean delegation, including KMA officials, proposed that the upcoming congress be held during Expo 2012, Korea became a successful bidder with overwhelming support.
To this end, the KMA continued to publicize its bid during ocean-related international conferences in close cooperation with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade, the Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs and the Expo 2012 Yeosu Organizing Committee. In particular, Jeollanam-do Gov. Park Jun-young and Yeosu Mayor Oh Hyun-sup joined forces in the bidding at the 3rd Session of JCOMM.
The 4th Session of JCOMM will coincide with Expo 2012, to be held from May 12 through Aug. 12, so more than 100 academics of oceanography and marine meteorology from about 40 countries will converge for the conference, more than the number of participants of the previous sessions, from an average of 40 countries. The upcoming session will be a good opportunity to publicize Korea’s policies to cope with the prevention of natural disasters and climate change.
JCOMM has 182 member countries and holds a regular session every four years.
Q: Will you elaborate on the effect climate change will have?
A: Temperatures on the Korean Peninsula surged an annual average of 1.7 degrees centigrade between 1912 and 2008, while rainfall jumped an annual average of 19 percent. This is apparently influenced by global warming. In particular, Korea, being exacerbated by the greater influence of urbanization, sees a higher increase rate than the world average.
Signs of the impact by climate change are that the nation’s precipitation and the frequency of downpours tend to rise during summer, and the type of precipitation during winter shows signs of changing from snow to rain. Wintertime is 22 to 49 days shorter, spring comes earlier and summertime is prolonged by 13 to 17 days.
Experiments with climate change models by the National Institute of Meteorological Research shows that the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere will rise twice the current level by 2100. The average temperature and annual precipitation on the Korean Peninsula will soar by 4 degrees centigrade and 17 percent during the late 21st century between 2079 and 2100 versus the changes of the late 20th century between 1979 and 2000.
As rainfall fluctuations are forecast to widen in terms of space and time, chances are high that the drought vs. rainfall situation will be deepened. In the case that temperatures on the Korean Peninsula rise by 4 degrees centigrade, the probability is that winter will disappear on Jeju Island, Ulleung Island, the south coast and east coast areas in the late 21st century.
The frequency of typhoons in the North Pacific is forecast to shrink by some 20 percent, but there will be likely no change in the number of typhoons influencing the Korean Peninsula, although with higher uncertainties. The intensity of typhoons approaching Korea is predicted to get stronger due to a rise in the temperature of the sea surface in the coastal areas of the peninsula.
Q: Will you tell us about plans the KMA will put in place in keeping with future climate change in Korea and green growth, the task of the times?
A: Greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere is on the rise due to an increase in the burning of fossil fuels since the Industrial Revolution. The global CO2 content stood at 383.1 ppm as of 2007 with an annual average increase rate of 2.0 ppm. Korea had 390 ppm, a little higher than the global average.
Korea ranked 10th in terms of greenhouse gas emissions in 2005, but the nation placed higher ― fourth place ― among OECD member countries during the five-year period between 2000 and 2005.
The KMA has built up infrastructure for providing support for and spearheading pan-government responses to climate change, and it has proactively been participating in the government’s package of steps designed to cope with pacts on climate change since 1999. The KMA’s mission is to establish a more precise climate change surveillance system on the Korean Peninsula through the upgrading of climate change science and to produce future climate information in a more accurate manner.
We plan to contribute to promoting low-carbon, green growth by joining forces in a worldwide drive on climate change and producing information on climate change science and assisting in accordance with a national vision of realizing a low-carbon society through green growth. In this regard, the KMA will ramp up its production of information on climate change science and support by setting three goals.
First, the KMA will dramatically expand its capability on climate change surveillance on the Korean Peninsula by effectively watching out for greenhouse gas concentrations, a fundamental factor in establishing policies for climate change pacts.
Second, we will strive to develop our own world-class technologies on national standard climate change scenarios in order to realize nationwide low-carbon, green growth against future climate change.
Third, the KMA will contribute to sustainable development through low-carbon, green growth by strengthening publicity activities toward the enhancement of the public’s awareness toward climate change and international cooperation in order to raise the nation’s standing.
Q: The KMA appointed Prof. Kenneth Crawford, a U.S. meteorological authority, to take charge in the advancing of Korea’s meteorological affairs. Will you comment on this matter?
A: A main job for Prof. Crawford, who was hired this past August, is to innovate for the KMA’s take-off by analyzing the overall business and embracing advanced countries’ meteorological policies and responses to climate change and advancing observation systems. We contacted globally recognized experts for filling the position last year. Chair Prof. Crawford of the University of Oklahoma accepted our offer.
Prof. Crawford, a prominent authority in the meteorological field with 30 years of field experience with the U.S. National Weather Service, is considered to be a meteorologist with the field experience and academic career that best fits our needs. In particular, an authority in weather forecasting, radar meteorology and climatology, Crawford has profound field experiences attained while holding such posts, including the American Meteorological Society.
The KMA is seeking to have an exemplary case of successfully improving systems and technologies in a short period of time known to international society by making the most of his expertise recognized in his home country. We expect this to raise Korea’s roles in the international meteorological field.
Q: I’ve heard that the launch of the Communication, Ocean and Meteorological Satellite (COMS) has been delayed from late 2009 to the first half of next year. Will you touch on the COMS?
A: Korea’s first meteorological satellite, COMS, is a multipurpose satellite for meteorological, communication and oceanographic services. In 2003, the KMA began the development of the satellite together with the Ministry of Education, Science and Technology and the Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs and it cost 350 billion won, 75 billion won of which was shouldered by the KMA.
The satellite will be capable of conducting meteorological surveillance around the clock, including night time, as it will be fitted with a meteorological censor that will allow observations using infrared rays. If the satellite is to be launched next March as planned, Korea will be the seventh country to have a meteorological satellite in orbit following the United States, Japan, Europe, Russia, India and China. This will likely not only raising Korea’s national standing, but also bring about practically useful benefits.
Korea has so far depended on Japan to receive satellite data in an interval of 30 minutes to issue weather broadcasts. Korea will be able to make observations at any place and any time we want. We expect the satellite to bring a boon in conducting weather forecasts and early predictions of dangerous weather.
Korea’s launch of its own meteorological service with remote-sensing equipment indicates a symbolic meaning of being technologically independent, departing from its dependence on advanced countries.
It also means that the nation’s meteorological services can be expanded to space. Starting with the launch of the satellite of meteorological, communication and oceanographic services, the KMA plans to aggressively conduct space-based weather and environment surveillance around the globe by participating in the development of a geostationary, multipurpose satellite.
Q: Will you elaborate on a town forecasting system?
A: Of late, the demand on weather forecasts related to the prevention of natural disasters, industrial activities and public daily life is on the surge, and its significance is getting greater. At this juncture, we embarked on town forecasting in order to provide detailed, qualified weather information tailored to customers’ demands in December 2008.
Weather forecasts in 12 categories including temperature, humidity, wind, the color of the sky, probability of rain, rainfall, and height of tidal waves will be made in 3,500 eup, myeon, dong units following the detailed segmentation of the nation and in an interval of three hours for the next 48 hours.
Town forecasting services, made available via the Internet at an initial stage, can be obtained by dialing 131 from this past October.
Q: What’s the current status of earthquakes on the Korean Peninsula and the KMA’s forecasts?
A: Tremors hit the peninsula 42 times in 2007, 46 times in 2008 and 55 times so far in 2009, a rise of nine times, or a 19.5 percent surge over last year, as well as 13.7 times more or a 33.1 percent jump over the average of 41.3 times during the decade from 1999 to 2008.
Earthquakes of more than 3.0 in Richter scale took place eight times during the January-November 2009 period, fewer than an annual average frequency of 9.1 times. Felt quakes that both the seismometer and human beings sensed hit the nation 10 times in the first 11 months of the year, a rise of 1.1 times more than an average of 8.9 times in the past decade.
The frequency of tremors that took place during the 11 month-long period this year was 55 times higher than the average in the past decade, a little fewer than the average in terms of tremors with a scale of more than 3.0 and a little higher than the average in terms of felt quakes, indicating a similar pattern in the recent decade overall.
The recent rise in the frequency of earthquakes is due to an improved performance of earthquake analysis systems and tremor analysis capability, which can lead to the observation of too small tremors for human beings to sense.
The Korean Peninsula lies away from the earthquake-prone zone, but cannot be sure entirely safe from tremors. Such thorough steps as earthquake-resistant design in the construction of new structures could minimize casualties from tremors. Currently, the KMA issues tremor bulletins within two minutes of occurrence and tremor reports within five minutes. If a national tremor early warning system, now under development, is established, tremor bulletins will be issued within 50 minutes of occurrence in 2015 and within 10 minutes in 2020.
Q: Will you speak about international cooperation to combat yellow dust?
A: Yellow dust is a phenomenon in which dusty sand being blown by the dry, desert regions of China and Mongolia flow into the Korean Peninsula. As a result, collaboration with the neighboring source countries of yellow dust is absolutely required.
The KMA has jointly built 10 yellow dust observation stations at yellow dust source places in China under a project and makes forecasts on yellow dust based on data being collected from the existing yellow dust observation stations. We plan to build more observation stations after holding consultations with China in order to step up the surveillance on yellow dust sources.
A yellow dust surveillance tower is in place in the Gobi Desert in Mongolia to fathom the weather conditions of the birthplace of yellow dust, which are utilized to develop yellow dust forecast models, and one more yellow dust surveillance tower is to be set up next year.
Meanwhile, Korea, China and Japan collaborate through joint observation tours by yellow dust study teams, the mutual comparison of yellow dust models and joint workshops. nw

Korea Meteorological Administration consultants pose for a group photo session in front of a rain-gauging instrument created for weather forecasts during King Sejong the Great’s reign during the Joseon Dynasty in the lobby of the KMA headquarters.

A rain-gauging instrument and a sundial created for weather forecasts during King Sejong the Great’s reign of the Joseon Dynasty. A staff member is at work at the National Meteorological Center on the second floor of the KMA building. The KMA is striving to introduce advanced meteorological equipment in order to make precise weather forecasts.

KMA Administrator Chun poses with NewsWorld Publisher-President Elizabeth M. Oh and managing editor Kim Soo-young in front of the integrated control system of the National Meteorological Center.