President Roh's Performance Gets
Mixed Assessment

The assessment on President Roh Moo-hyun's performance over the past year seems mixed at large. Roh, entering his third year term after Feb. 25, appears desperate in efforts to get the nation's sagging economy to the normal track, as he has largely failed in the economic front.
It is a well-known fact that President Roh Moo-hyun's political role model is Abraham Lincoln. This seems an especially appropriate choice, not only in light of both of his relatively humble backgrounds, but also given the similar challenge faced by him and the 16th American president of creating consensus within a highly divisive political environment. It would be an exaggeration to equate the bitter divisions of the American Civil War with the progressive-conservative split in contemporary political life in South Korea, or for that matter the longstanding division of the Korean peninsula. Nonetheless, two years into Roh's tenure, with limited progress in resolving the North Korean nuclear issue, and after a bruising year of political tension in which his government's reform agenda appears to have floundered in the face of conservative opposition, it seems appropriate to take stock and consider the opportunities he may have, in the famous words of Lincoln's second inaugural address, to "bind up the nation's wounds".
On the domestic front, last year's experience appears to have been decidedly mixed for you. On the positive side, Roh's success in surviving the effort to impeach you exposed major tactical political blunders on the part of the Grand National Party (GNP) and disaffected members of the Millennium Democratic Party (MDP). The Constitutional Court's overturning of the original impeachment decision, coupled with vocal but restrained public demonstrations in support of you, and the professional way in which the interim administration of Prime Minister Goh Kun managed government affairs during the period of crisis, all reflect an increasingly politically mature political culture far removed from your country's authoritarian past. The unprecedented success for the newly formed Uri Party in the April General Election, eventually securing 155 out of 299 seats in the National Assembly, gave the Blue House a unique opportunity to transform the political landscape in its favor.
Yet Roh's administration has appeared curiously unable to capitalize on this new-found political strength. The failure of the governing party to pass its four key reform bills dealing with private schools, media ownership, contentious historical issues, and repeal of the longstanding anti-Communist National Security Law, has been attributed to the zealousness of new first-term Uri legislators insufficiently sensitive to the give and take of practical politics. Disappointment in promoting legislation has been matched by your own declining popularity levels - now at 39 percent, and far below the heady 80 percent approval ratings you enjoyed at the start of your tenure - and by the Constitutional Court's decision to rule against the planned relocation of the nation's capital. Even when your government has been successful in implementing policy changes, such as last October's anti-prostitution reforms it has been legitimately criticized for failing to provide adequate support and new employment opportunities for those affected by the new legislation.
The New Year, however, has brought the prospect of a fresh start and his public remarks have hinted at a more pragmatic approach, involving greater emphasis on economic revitalization and less on sweeping social reform. Hints of a more graduated approach to dealing with corporate corruption, involving a possible amnesty for past indiscretions, are likely to be well-received by the business community, and you can also take some comfort from the January pledge by GNP leader Park Geun-hye to avoid partisan politics, as well as by the selection of a more pragmatic and experienced Uri party leadership in the National Assembly, in the form of Lim Chae-jung and Chung Sye-kun. None of this should minimize the difficulties for the second half of Roh's term. Economic forecasts of 4.5 percent growth for next year have done little to boost public confidence; major parts of the government's economic reform agenda, such as closing the wage disparity between regular and irregular workers, remain unresolved; and the recent establishment of the People's Participatory Union - a block within the Uri Party committed to the vigorous pursuit of a progressive reform agenda - hint at further tensions between the Blue House and some sections of the governing party.
Yet, for all these challenges and setbacks, there is much to admire in his administration. Government decision-making has become more structured and better coordinated, despite some recent very public setbacks in selecting candidates for the sensitive position of Education Minister. Devolving greater policy making autonomy to his close political ally and confidant, Prime Minister Lee Hae-chan, has given you greater freedom to concentrate on foreign affairs. The key role for Unification Minister Chung Dong-young in chairing the standing committee of the National Security Council has helped to alleviate past tensions between the NSC and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade. Ban Ki-moon's continuation in the post of Foreign Minister is a welcome sign of stability after a past pattern of all too-frequent, annual changes in this key cabinet position. A more open system of intelligence briefings suggests an admirable desire to minimize political opportunism and to increase transparency in government decision-making. This instinct, rather than any narrowly partisan effort to embarrass the opposition, appears to explain the recent disclosure of historical documents relating to the Japan-ROK normalization talks of 1965 and the assassination of the wife of President Park Chung-hee in 1974.
Critics of Roh's foreign policy point to your public statements in Los Angeles and Paris in November and December of last year, in which he argued against regime-change in North Korea, and urged the United States to avoid taking an overly hard-line against Pyongyang. They see this as proof of divisions between Seoul and Washington and a mishandling of the alliance. Yet, such claims are overstated. While there are tactical differences on how best to manage relations with the North, the US and ROK governments are united in their desire to secure a non-nuclear peninsula by peaceful means. Moreover, one should not overlook the substantive achievements of his government within the context of the alliance, including the politically bold dispatch of 3,600 South Korean troops to Iraq, agreement to delay permanent US troop redeployments out of Korea until 2008, and the beginning of substantive negotiations on a bilateral ROK-US free trade-agreement. By articulating Roh's concerns, he appears merely to be doing what any good ally should do confidently but constructively making his case to his alliance partner, a position that has been reinforced by the shrewd appointment of conservative newspaper chairman Hong Seok-hyun as ambassador to the US. There will be differences of emphasis and direction to resolve in the coming months, including Roh's government's concern not to alienate Beijing by overly ambitious security cooperation with Washington. Most critical of all, in the wake of North Korea's latest announcement to suspend its involvement in the six-party talks indefinitely, both the US and the ROK administrations will have to find the right mix of pressure and encouragement to bring Pyongyang back to the negotiating table. His more confident and energetic foreign policy, and his more pragmatic approach to domestic issues, offers an opportunity, although by no means a guarantee, to resolve political divisions at home and long-standing tension with the ROK's northern neighbor. nw